Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 21.241090 25.514901 30.211595 35.727828 41.999899 48.880374 56.968890
2025-08-31 14.224136 19.605916 26.137653 34.524833 44.876892 57.101557 72.484401
2025-09-07 10.991746 16.894747 24.628365 35.232304 49.100766 66.319258 88.978027
2025-09-14 8.378122 14.264728 22.536431 34.554487 51.069708 72.445729 101.615941
2025-09-21 6.923456 12.894985 21.805578 35.389815 54.818661 80.805954 117.280504
2025-09-28 5.218829 10.750078 19.565937 33.711369 54.799398 83.963606 126.063749
2025-10-05 4.504641 10.060071 19.384696 34.942491 58.864982 92.768624 142.713828
2025-10-12 3.854136 9.334143 19.012372 35.777230 62.318201 100.796636 158.546144
2025-10-19 3.290262 8.641814 18.576977 36.416697 65.444846 108.425442 174.043762
2025-10-26 2.860313 8.118333 18.347602 37.330982 68.993873 116.763714 190.801049
2025-11-02 2.337873 7.268376 17.391144 36.886475 70.305400 121.768584 202.840850
2025-11-09 1.972944 6.682121 16.841174 37.069262 72.593057 128.285001 217.264261
2025-11-16 1.602996 6.013576 16.094016 36.942282 74.560920 134.716433 232.324412
2025-11-23 1.215307 5.166785 14.839768 35.744160 74.642962 138.240754 243.218425
2025-11-30 1.027486 4.821443 14.610868 36.473581 78.085733 147.223275 262.759987
2025-12-07 0.795191 4.237310 13.723731 35.777342 78.908448 151.952188 275.800728
2025-12-14 0.678221 3.994758 13.607582 36.635592 82.581322 161.481322 296.668454
2025-12-21 0.483112 3.349948 12.345671 34.910988 81.312153 162.664997 304.233286
2025-12-28 0.423754 3.232914 12.452640 36.176016 85.765556 173.685021 327.953274
2026-01-04 0.360740 3.064315 12.384902 37.033593 89.464460 183.523899 350.007555
2026-01-11 0.302254 2.881140 12.239369 37.690475 92.791495 192.816564 371.401562
2026-01-18 0.258499 2.747982 12.217260 38.629542 96.718464 203.277214 394.986871
2026-01-25 0.197186 2.457351 11.643053 38.173004 97.784329 208.692539 410.285050